Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Visa

Visa (V) was recently recommended by Cabot. Visa just went public March 19, and has grown 26% in it's first month. As there is little investor data on Visa, to me it seems like a big unknown. However, I thought it was interesting that (while only for a month) it has follow, close to, the exact same price trend as master card, which has shown tremendous growth , 420% since June '06. Is this any indicator that Visa will show similar trends? How closely tied are all the companies in this industry? I'm sure there's a word for it , you business majors learn, for an industry that for the most part goes up and down in unison. Thoughts ? 

Thursday, April 3, 2008

Portfolio

I have always invested the same way, but I am definitely open to new ideas. For a few years I have invested half of my investing money in mutual funds, with the other half in stocks with high 3-5 growth prospects. However, I am starting to take more interest in shorter term investments. I have made/watched some healthy return off of some picks by Cabot, which are typically momentum buys into companies that have already appreciated significantly.  

As far as the conservative half, I've typically gone with large cap growth funds. In the no load mutual fund arena, it seems pretty reasonable to get an annualized 12-15%. My rules for funds in the past have been as follows:  1) must have a 10 year track record of 12% return 2) must have an expense ratio less than one 3) must not have a front end load fee 4) no sector funds. Sector funds can be very profitable, but, for me, they defeat the purpose of a mutual fund - instant diversification. Also, international funds typically have a higher expense ratio, so I consider them an exception to the rule. I would definitely like to have half of my investing money in a diversified mutual fund while I pour my attention into the other half of my portfolio. Thoughts? 

Wednesday, April 2, 2008

Big Picture

So far we have been discussing the micro level topics and individual equities. I would like to take this chance to maybe have some discussion as to the bigger issues at hand.

For instance:

I will start by saying that I believe in a portfolio which is extremely aggressive with the money one can stand to lose, and uberconservative with the money which cannot be lost. As for the percentage of money I am willing to lose at this early stage of life, I can comfortably say that I could part with all of it and not feel too much pain. However, I hardly think it wise to invest all capital in highly risky financial instruments and leave oneself open to the possibility of poverty, so I will limit my potential losses to half my portfolio. The rest is placed in US T-bills which are widely considered to be the safest investment on the planet. While not directly, in respect to the high percentages, I developed this strategy (stole it really) from Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the former commodity trader who now holds a professorship in probability.

But I am interested in your thoughts as well.