The Price of Oil and World Events

About a month ago Andrew recommended to me the book "Fooled by Randomness." Although he might be better at describing the central points of the book, the main thing I take from it is that people look for connections in everything, when in fact pure randomness is actually controlling a large part of what is happening.

Something that hit me just now was the fact that no matter if the price of oil goes up or down by 3 cents or $3, there always seems to be a consensus as to why it made that move. Today oil is down because fears have been eased surrounding tropical storm Dolly. Previously there was news about Iran (I think concerning there missile program). And before that, around the time oil started making its fall, America reported good numbers around its supplies (which is pretty legit). I don't really have any idea as to whether there is good correlation between these world events and the price of oil...but I suspect that "Oil falls as there are more sellers than buyers" would not make the top headlines. Or how about..."News concerning sh*tloads of new drivers in Asia means we need more oil." That might be the most accurate.