Apache

Seagate Technology was recommended by me as a buy in the 26 dollar range. However, after further discussion, and watching the price drop, it has yet to be added to the Oxford Capital Group's holdings. Perhaps from now on, there will be a list of stocks being "watched" by the group, as well as our current positions, which now include Apache Corp. On that note, today, APA, closed at 119.40 dollars, which gives the group a total of 24.37 percent gain since Andrew's buy recommendation at 96 dollars on February 6th. Congratulations guys! With all eyes on the market reports, economic forecasts, and political updates, let's hear suggestions for the group's next great investment! 

Thesis

I didn't see the comment you left, Andrew. I like the addition, and the new description is up. 

Thesis

  If any of the members want to edit or write a new Thesis statement (The statement underneath the title starting with "This is a group dedicated to...") for the group, I'm fine with it; I just wanted to put something down that covered the basics. Hopefully, we can hear from Nate and Caroline soon. If you two haven't found anything that "blows your skirt up" that's absolutely fine; a follow up for Apache or Seagate would be nice. Presenting possible competition or economic or political or infrastructural or etc... factors that could serve as a caveat to accompany our BUY recommendations would be great. Also, if anyone could take an hour or two to help me put graphs and pictures and such on this site, that would be sweet. I know everyone's busy, so just let me know when you might have an hour or two... 

      Lastly, with APA trading in the 108$ range, Andrew's pick from last week has gained just short of 13%. Good Work!  

Seagate Technology

   

       Seagate Technology is the largest manufacturer of computer hard drives in the world, dominating approximately one-third of the hard disk drives market. As technology continues to move towards more wireless and more compact devices, with MP3 players, smart phones, laptops, cameras, and other electronic devices (That use memory), the demand for Seagate's products will continue to increase. They seem to be fully equipped to respond especially with the recent acquisition of Maxtor, and plenty of extra cash. While some analysts are Ranking WDC high as well, and Seagate has little to no economic moat in its sector, Seagate will start researching and producing flash drives, which could pose a threat to the hard drive industry in years to come. This should further increase Seagate's edge over the competition. Second quarter (Ending in December) numbers show big jumps revenue/income largely due to an increasing demand  from primary-equipment manufacturers like HP, Dell, EMC, and IBM, which account for nearly 60% of Seagate's annual revenue.  

        As of today, February 12, Seagate will be teaming up with WinMagic to assist with a combined information/encryption initiative. To appeal to large companies with endless quantities of sensitive information and lots of different information formats and hardware devices, this joint effort will allow companies to centrally arrange and store information in all types of formats. If any of the members understand IT jargon, the detail can be found here: 

 http://news.morningstar.com/newsnet/ViewNews.aspx?article=/BW/20080212005350_univ.xml   

  Due to the edge that Seagate seems to have in an industry that is high in demand, I am recommending a BUY for STX at 24$ a share. 

APA

APA closed at $103.53 today and has risen on reports Thursday that its fourth-quarter net income doubled because of record oil prices and increased production. It is time to think about selling off a portion of your stake and securing some of the profits. This company still has room to climb, but its not a bad proposition to sell some now and claim a nearly 8% return since I suggested you get in at $96. Oil prices will continue to be volatile and I wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback with APA in the short-run before eventually going higher on increased production and a long-term upward trend in prices.

Maintain some APA in your portfolio, but move half of the initial investment to cash until another strong buy comes along.

Look for $105 on the open and pull the trigger.

Good Call

 I'm currently working on a report on Western Digital Corp and Seagate Technology, but I just wanted to note the approximate 7.2 percent gain Apache has had since Andrew's report. From now on, when someone presents a BUY recommendation, the rest of the members need to give some kind of a response, even it's just a *Thumbs Up*. We're here to bounce ideas off of each other, not to throw them against a wall. So, good work Andrew, and everyone be looking for my post sometime before tomorrow night. 

Apache Corp

As I look at the market today, there are few companies which seem irresistible. However, there is one which I would like to present today which I strongly feel does posses this attribute. Apache Corporation (APA) is a Houston based oil and gas company with E&P interests in the U.S., Canada, North Sea, Australia, Argentina and Egypt. With 60% of total reserves abroad, Apache is in solid position to make a play on the rising prices of gasoline overseas and the growing demand for personal transportation in developing Asia. Oil prices will increase in 2008 and APA is in position to capitalize on these price hikes.

Apache estimates that assets in Australia, Canada, and Egypt to be 34.5 Tcfe (unproven) which is more than 200% of current proven reserves. With this sort of growth noted earlier, I not only consider the current P/E of 14.2 verses an industry average P/E of 13 to be a fair premium, but also a bargain.

Moreover, I calculate APA trading at 4.53 x EBITDA for 2007 which is well below the industry average of closer to 6x.

NOV is a competitor that has mentioned on this blog and certainly has shown explosive growth rates is EPS over the past few quarters. While I do think the NOV growth rate will continue to outpace APA, the 18.3 P/E is a formidable premium to pay for such speculation most of which has already made its way into price.

This is my basis for a “buy now” recommendation of APA anywhere around $96.

Oh.

You meant Apache. 

"Timely" List

Here is the list of timely stocks I was referring to in my last post.  In no particular order (arranged by industry).  

National Oilwell Varco (NOV) 

Noble Drilling (NE) 

Schlumberger (SLB) 

BioGen (BIIB) 

Forest Labs (FRX)  

Amphenol Corp. (APH) 

Amedisys (AMED) 

St. Jude Medical (STJ) 

Varian Medical Sys. (VAR) 

PAN American Silver (PAAS) 

Investment Techn. (ITG) 

Xilinx Semiconductors (XLNX) 

MEMC Electronics (WFR)  

P.s.  APA is not on this list, Drew. Did you mean Amphenol (APH)? 

Sweet.

Glad to see everybody found this place ok. Also good to hear Andrew has a favorite. For everybody else, I gave him this list of stocks that have recently been named, "timely" and are considered to be in hot industries. We can build a model portfolio if people are interested. I'm open to any kind of portfolio the members are into, and we can definitely change the name of this page to include everybody's name, haha. So... if anyone has any opinions about all this, let's hear it!  

     P.s. I'm working on having graphs on our page of all of our picks. Should be pretty cool! 

First Post

This is my first post - sort of a test run.